“ChatGPT Just Told Me There’s a 65% Chance Obergefell Will Be Overturned”

A First Person Perspective from AMM Staff: 

 

I was researching an article about how international marriages solemnized online in Utah might be affected if SCOTUS overturns Obergefell v Hodges – when I decided to ask ChatGPT to weigh in on the fate of this landmark ruling. (I was on a coffee break, and this is how I like to spend my free time…)

 

The result? ChatGPT says there’s a 55% to 65% chance that the Supreme Court would rollback Obergefell if they decided to hear a case that directly challenged it. 

 

That’s a very, very high number – especially considering that the AI Hivemind put the odds at closer to 20% just three months ago (according to this Reddit user, who apparently had the same question).

 

But a lot has changed in the political landscape in the last three months, and it seems like even ChatGPT has noticed. 

 

Here’s a look at ChatGPT’s reasoning behind the prediction that the Supreme Court will reverse marriage equality: 

 

 

• Prompt: "Let's assume a case is brought before SCOTUS that requires them to revisit Obergefell v Hodges. Give me the odds that it is overturned."

 

 

• ChatGPT:  “If the Supreme Court grants cert (agrees to hear a case) that directly challenges Obergefell v. Hodges — meaning they must address whether there’s a constitutional right to same-sex marriage — then:

 

🎯 Estimated odds of overturning Obergefell (in whole or in part): ~55–65%

 

This isn’t a guarantee — but it would be a real and serious threat. Here’s how that number breaks down:

 

✅ Why the odds are this high:

1. Conservative Supermajority (6–3):

 

• At least five justices are originalists or textualists: Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Barrett.

 

• Thomas and Alito have explicitly called for reconsidering Obergefell in their 2020 statement.

 

• Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Barrett haven’t ruled clearly on Obergefell, but they sided with the majority in Dobbs, which overturned Roe v. Wade — another major privacy/liberty precedent.

 

2. Precedent from Dobbs v. Jackson (2022):

 

• The Court showed it’s willing to overturn landmark rulings when they believe they were wrongly decided.

 

• Dobbs explicitly rejected the constitutional basis for Roe, which was rooted in the same substantive due process doctrine as Obergefell.

 

3. Ideological Signaling:

 

• Thomas in Dobbs: “We should reconsider all of this Court’s substantive due process precedents, including Griswold, Lawrence, and Obergefell.”

 

• That’s not subtle.

 

⚖️ Why it might not be overturned:

1. Public Opinion:

 

• Marriage equality has broad bipartisan support (over 70% of Americans).

 

• The Court is aware of its public legitimacy; a reversal could spark a Dobbs-level or worse backlash.

 

2. Chief Justice Roberts:

 

• Often favors more narrow rulings and institutional stability.

 

• He dissented in Obergefell but might not vote to overturn it today for strategic reasons.

 

3. Respect for Marriage Act (2022):

 

• Even if Obergefell is overturned, this federal law still requires states to recognize same-sex marriages performed elsewhere.

 

• That could reduce the Court’s perceived urgency in changing course.

 

🔮 Bottom Line:

If the Court takes a case that directly challenges the constitutional right to same-sex marriage, the likelihood that Obergefell is overturned — in full or in part — is better than even, somewhere in the 55–65% range.

 

It wouldn’t be shocking at all. It would, however, be seismic.” 

 

(ChatGPT; 10:30am EST, 4/16/25)

 

I’m not sharing this to create panic, and we all know that ChatGPT makes mistakes – I don’t trust it farther than I can throw a drought-inducing server farm. 

 

And there’s certainly no consensus among legal experts: some attorneys say there’s very little chance SCOTUS would even take a case that challenged Obergefell, while others, including seasoned trial lawyer Paula Greisen of Greison Medlock, say that “Given the current conservative makeup of the court, there are legitimate fears that the Obergefell precedent could be overturned.”

 

Still, given recent calls to overturn Obergefell from a few state legislators – including resolutions introduced in Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota – and refusals to perform same-sex marriages from some judges, it’s worthwhile to take some time to weigh what the current risks to marriage equality actually are. 

 

Is the risk truly 55% to 65%? I can’t say. (And neither can ChatGPT, really, not with any accuracy.) 

 

But it’s certainly not zero. 

 

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Read Next: 

 

• How to Officiate a Same-Sex Wedding Ceremony
   
• 12 Fun Nontraditional Ideas for a Lesbian Wedding
   
• Same-Sex Wedding Ceremony Script with Reflection on Marriage Equality

 

Click the wedding script linked above for a beautiful example of what to say at your wedding ceremony, including a moving quote from Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy in favor of marriage equality. 

 

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